Thedowtheory.com
The Dow Theory | Schannep Timing Indicators
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thedowtheory.com Profile
Title:The Dow Theory | Schannep Timing Indicators
Description:Stock market trend timing indicator incorporates the Dow Theory and our proprietary Schannep Timing Indicator.
PRINT Overview: There's always a divergence of opinion on the outlook for the stock market, but seldom more noticeable than now. Bears point to these reasons for the stock market to drop into a bear market: 1) the inverted yield curve, 2) high consumer debt levels, 3) faltering industrial production, 4) international conflicts or even the possibility of war, and 5) a coming recession. Valid concerns all, however there is always another side, so let's look at what they might be: 1) The yield curve does have an excellent record of preceding recession as you know from our Special Report. There you will see that the average lead to the market's high has been 6 ½ months and the lead to the next recession has been 14 â…“ months. Frankly, this it the only "Bear point" above that gives me pause; I'm not sure it's "different this time", but it could be. 2) High consumer debt is a function of population growth and looks to be sustainable and is easily affordable. The following charts are from MarketWatch (6/19/19) "U.S. Consumer dept is now breaching levels last reach during the 2008 financial crisis" where the opening sentence reads: "Consumer debt is growing to worrisome levels". I disagree, and as you will see from the following chart, the debt load is not a problem and consumer delinquency is about as low as ever. The article is perhaps an instance of "fake news"? 3) Industrial production has faltered before in 2015-6 and then recovered nicely, so why not now? 4) How can you evaluate international conflicts (which always occur) or even the possibility of war? You can't, and as to 5) a coming recession? Yes, there will be one but when will the great coming be? So far, GDP estimates for the following quarters are positive and that does not equate to a recession this year. Let's worry about 2020 and beyond as we get a little closer and can see more clearly. Now let's talk about another type of divergence, the one that relates to the Dow Jones Transportation average and the Dow Industrials. The one that's all the rage on Wall Street: The reason this divergence is important is because from the Dow Theory standpoint you'd expect both indexes (Transports and Industrials) to be going in the same direction if both industries were healthy, or unhealthy. Depending on the time frame, the difference in divergence changes somewhat. Recently, since the May setback lows to now, the Industrials are up 7.1% while the Transports are up 7.4%, so the lagging Transports are catching up. Yes, the Industrials made a new 2019 high and the Transports have not, yet. I would call this lagging rather than divergence but since the Transports usually lead the Industrials it is somewhat worrisome until the Transports catch up. And why might they? Truckers are a part of the transportation index and they are looking up. Other than Fed EX and UPS, I'm hard pressed to see any other sub-group acting poorly. The DOW THEORY for the 21st Century: This Indicator is GREEN from the 75% BUY at 26,026.32 on 3/1/19 when the definition of a Bull market was met and combined with the 25% BUY at the time of the Capitulation on 12/24/18 at 21,792.20, the average entry level is 24,997.90. As you know from my June 21st email: "Yesterday both the Dow Industrials and the S&P500 made new 2019 highs shown in the table posted in the Subscribers Home Page. This means the ongoing bull market is confirmed! The Dow Transports are lagging and need to reach their 2019 high of 11,098.99 in order to be 'in the clear'. I'll discuss their divergence and what it may, or may not, mean in my upcoming July Letter. In the meantime, the secondary reaction is history and the primary uptrend has prevailed". The Original Dow Theory: This Indicator is GREEN (BUY) as of 4/1/19 at 26,258.42 when both the Dow Industrials and the Dow Transports closed above their February secondary reaction highs. The recent setback lasted from "three weeks to as many months" so therefore was a valid secondary reaction from the old/original Dow Theory's interpretation. Since then the Industrials have made new highs but the Dow Transports have not, yet. When they do, that would be a reconfirmation of the existing Buy and the market would be "in the clear". Until that happens, this indicator is still at risk of a Sell signal. The S&P500 plays no part in this theory's signals. Schannep Â↑ÂTIMING ↓INDICATOR: This proprietary market-timing Indicator is GREEN (BUY) at an average entry level of 23,841.76 from the 50% capitulation BUY at 21,792.20 on 12/24/18 and the final 50% BUY when this Indicator got its signal on 2/19/19 at 25,891.32. The market's momentum is positive, and the status of monetary conditions continues favorable, therefore no change is in sight. IMPORTANT CHANGE: Effective January 2020, all of our subscription renewals will be based on the $20 monthly plan. This will NOT represent a change for a large number of you, but we understand this will be an increase for previous annual Subscribers as such renewals will be discontinued. Several factors have influenced this decision, one of which is my age (I just celebrated my 85th birthday) and the lack of an heir apparent as a future editor. Please know that currently I have no plans for discontinuing my Letter, I am in good health, but I want to be transparent in a proactive way with you, my valued Subscribers. Sincerely, Jack The COMPOSITE Timing Indicator: This, our primary major-trend timing Indicator, is GREEN (BUY) at an average entry level of 23,841.76 from the 50% capitulation BUY at 21,792.20 on 12/24/18 and the final 50% BUY when the Schannep Timing Indicator got its signal on 2/19/19. As it is the combination of both the Dow Theory for the 21st Century and the Schannep Timing Indicator, any change would be shown in the paragraphs above. This Indicator is the one I use in my model (real money) portfolio and recommend most Subscribers use it also. It is 100% invested as shown at the end of this Letter. The BOTTOM LINE: There are questions as to the market going up in anticipation of a successful China trade deal and a recession postponed until later in the new decade, or things falling apart. Conflicting reports include Consumer Confidence (from the Conference Board) sharply down but Consumer Sentiment (from the U. of Michigan) only modestly so. So, which is it? Our Indicators (above) suggest staying the course, and you'll remember their combined "targets" are in the vicinity of 30,000 for the Industrials. We know it will not be straight up, and maybe not up at all if the economy falters or world events intervene, but I am optimistic that the bull market will continue and the worth of our Indicators will once again be proven. Jack Schannep Editor for The Schannep team Historically we have tracked the performance of one of my ACTUAL ROTH IRA portfolios, fully following the Composite Timing Indicator's signals which is currently 100% invested (as shown below). For longer-term results see The Composite Timing Indicator which we use for timing in our Portfolio verses Buy and Hold. FYI, over the last 65 years Buy & Hold has grown at a 10.6% annual rate whereas The Composite has grown at a 13.3% rate. The problem with showing this real-money Portfolio is that it represents only what I am doing, which could be very different from others. Subscribers use this letter for Market Timing, which could include shorting, going long, even utilizing leveraged investments that could double or triple – in either direction. These results have been monitored by several independent sources that track our performance such as Hulbert Financial Digest, DowTheoryInvestments.com, CXO Advisory Group and TimerTrac.com. This Letter concentrates on the big picture, the trend of the major stock market indices which usually influences the price direction of most individual stocks. The Dow Theory is a form of technical analysis that relies on detecting trends in the stock market to determine an
PRINT Overview: There's always a divergence of opinion on the outlook for the stock market, but seldom more noticeable than now. Bears point to these reasons for the stock market to drop into a bear market: 1) the inverted yield curve, 2) high consumer debt levels, 3) faltering industrial production, 4) international conflicts or even the possibility of war, and 5) a coming recession. Valid concerns all, however there is always another side, so let's look at what they might be: 1) The yield curve does have an excellent record of preceding recession as you know from our Special Report. There you will see that the average lead to the market's high has been 6 ½ months and the lead to the next recession has been 14 â…“ months. Frankly, this it the only "Bear point" above that gives me pause; I'm not sure it's "different this time", but it could be. 2) High consumer debt is a function of population growth and looks to be sustainable and is easily affordable. The following charts are from MarketWatch (6/19/19) "U.S. Consumer dept is now breaching levels last reach during the 2008 financial crisis" where the opening sentence reads: "Consumer debt is growing to worrisome levels". I disagree, and as you will see from the following chart, the debt load is not a problem and consumer delinquency is about as low as ever. The article is perhaps an instance of "fake news"? 3) Industrial production has faltered before in 2015-6 and then recovered nicely, so why not now? 4) How can you evaluate international conflicts (which always occur) or even the possibility of war? You can't, and as to 5) a coming recession? Yes, there will be one but when will the great coming be? So far, GDP estimates for the following quarters are positive and that does not equate to a recession this year. Let's worry about 2020 and beyond as we get a little closer and can see more clearly. Now let's talk about another type of divergence, the one that relates to the Dow Jones Transportation average and the Dow Industrials. The one that's all the rage on Wall Street: The reason this divergence is important is because from the Dow Theory standpoint you'd expect both indexes (Transports and Industrials) to be going in the same direction if both industries were healthy, or unhealthy. Depending on the time frame, the difference in divergence changes somewhat. Recently, since the May setback lows to now, the Industrials are up 7.1% while the Transports are up 7.4%, so the lagging Transports are catching up. Yes, the Industrials made a new 2019 high and the Transports have not, yet. I would call this lagging rather than divergence but since the Transports usually lead the Industrials it is somewhat worrisome until the Transports catch up. And why might they? Truckers are a part of the transportation index and they are looking up. Other than Fed EX and UPS, I'm hard pressed to see any other sub-group acting poorly. The DOW THEORY for the 21st Century: This Indicator is GREEN from the 75% BUY at 26,026.32 on 3/1/19 when the definition of a Bull market was met and combined with the 25% BUY at the time of the Capitulation on 12/24/18 at 21,792.20, the average entry level is 24,997.90. As you know from my June 21st email: "Yesterday both the Dow Industrials and the S&P500 made new 2019 highs shown in the table posted in the Subscribers Home Page. This means the ongoing bull market is confirmed! The Dow Transports are lagging and need to reach their 2019 high of 11,098.99 in order to be 'in the clear'. I'll discuss their divergence and what it may, or may not, mean in my upcoming July Letter. In the meantime, the secondary reaction is history and the primary uptrend has prevailed". The Original Dow Theory: This Indicator is GREEN (BUY) as of 4/1/19 at 26,258.42 when both the Dow Industrials and the Dow Transports closed above their February secondary reaction highs. The recent setback lasted from "three weeks to as many months" so therefore was a valid secondary reaction from the old/original Dow Theory's interpretation. Since then the Industrials have made new highs but the Dow Transports have not, yet. When they do, that would be a reconfirmation of the existing Buy and the market would be "in the clear". Until that happens, this indicator is still at risk of a Sell signal. The S&P500 plays no part in this theory's signals. Schannep Â↑ÂTIMING ↓INDICATOR: This proprietary market-timing Indicator is GREEN (BUY) at an average entry level of 23,841.76 from the 50% capitulation BUY at 21,792.20 on 12/24/18 and the final 50% BUY when this Indicator got its signal on 2/19/19 at 25,891.32. The market's momentum is positive, and the status of monetary conditions continues favorable, therefore no change is in sight. IMPORTANT CHANGE: Effective January 2020, all of our subscription renewals will be based on the $20 monthly plan. This will NOT represent a change for a large number of you, but we understand this will be an increase for previous annual Subscribers as such renewals will be discontinued. Several factors have influenced this decision, one of which is my age (I just celebrated my 85th birthday) and the lack of an heir apparent as a future editor. Please know that currently I have no plans for discontinuing my Letter, I am in good health, but I want to be transparent in a proactive way with you, my valued Subscribers. Sincerely, Jack The COMPOSITE Timing Indicator: This, our primary major-trend timing Indicator, is GREEN (BUY) at an average entry level of 23,841.76 from the 50% capitulation BUY at 21,792.20 on 12/24/18 and the final 50% BUY when the Schannep Timing Indicator got its signal on 2/19/19. As it is the combination of both the Dow Theory for the 21st Century and the Schannep Timing Indicator, any change would be shown in the paragraphs above. This Indicator is the one I use in my model (real money) portfolio and recommend most Subscribers use it also. It is 100% invested as shown at the end of this Letter. The BOTTOM LINE: There are questions as to the market going up in anticipation of a successful China trade deal and a recession postponed until later in the new decade, or things falling apart. Conflicting reports include Consumer Confidence (from the Conference Board) sharply down but Consumer Sentiment (from the U. of Michigan) only modestly so. So, which is it? Our Indicators (above) suggest staying the course, and you'll remember their combined "targets" are in the vicinity of 30,000 for the Industrials. We know it will not be straight up, and maybe not up at all if the economy falters or world events intervene, but I am optimistic that the bull market will continue and the worth of our Indicators will once again be proven. Jack Schannep Editor for The Schannep team Historically we have tracked the performance of one of my ACTUAL ROTH IRA portfolios, fully following the Composite Timing Indicator's signals which is currently 100% invested (as shown below). For longer-term results see The Composite Timing Indicator which we use for timing in our Portfolio verses Buy and Hold. FYI, over the last 65 years Buy & Hold has grown at a 10.6% annual rate whereas The Composite has grown at a 13.3% rate. The problem with showing this real-money Portfolio is that it represents only what I am doing, which could be very different from others. Subscribers use this letter for Market Timing, which could include shorting, going long, even utilizing leveraged investments that could double or triple – in either direction. These results have been monitored by several independent sources that track our performance such as Hulbert Financial Digest, DowTheoryInvestments.com, CXO Advisory Group and TimerTrac.com. This Letter concentrates on the big picture, the trend of the major stock market indices which usually influences the price direction of most individual stocks. The Dow Theory is a form of technical analysis that relies on detecting trends in the stock market to determine an
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These are the technologies used at thedowtheory.com. thedowtheory.com has a total of 7 technologies installed in 8 different categories.
thedowtheory.com Traffic Analysis
Thedowtheory.com is ranked #1,887,918 in the world. This website is viewed by an estimated 2K visitors daily, generating a total of 3.9K pageviews. This equates to about 59.8K monthly visitors.Daily Visitors2K
Monthly Visits59.8K
Pages per Visit2.00
Visit duration00:21
Bounce Rate63.52%
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- Daily Unique Visitors:
- 1,972
- Monthly Visits:
- 59,752
- Pages per Visit:
- 2.00
- Daily Pageviews:
- 3,944
- Avg. visit duration:
- 00:21
- Bounce rate:
- 63.52%
- Global Reach:
- 4.0E-5%
- HypeRank:
- 1,887,918
- SEMrush Rank:
- 1,706,171
Traffic sources
- Direct:
- 91.52%
- Referral:
- 7.80%
- Search:
- 0.67%
- Social:
- 0%
- Paid:
- 0%
Where do visitors go on thedowtheory.com?
- Reach%Pageviews%PerUser
- thedowtheory.com
- 100.00%100.00%2
Backlinks Report ▼
Thedowtheory.com has a total of 1,181 backlinks from 112 referring domains and most of them comes from United States.- Total Backlinks:
- 1,181
- Follow Links:
- n/a
- Nofollow Links:
- n/a
- Referring Domains:
- 112
- Referring IPs:
- 155
- Authority Domain Score:
- 12
Backlinks by country
- Country
- Domains
- United States 84
- Germany 6
- Russian Federation 5
- Singapore 3
- United Kingdom 2
Backlinks by TLDs
- TLD Distribution
- Domains
- .com
- 67
- .org
- 9
- .us
- 4
- .edu
- 0
- .gov
- 0
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SEMrush is a complete on line advertising and marketing platform that gives a extensive variety of gear and functions to help companies and entrepreneurs in enhancing their on line visibility and optimizing their virtual advertising and marketing strategies.- Domain:
- thedowtheory.com
- Rank:
(Rank based on keywords, cost and organic traffic) - 1,706,171
- Organic Keywords:
(Number of keywords in top 20 Google SERP) - 0
- Organic Traffic:
(Number of visitors coming from top 20 search results) - 0
- Organic Cost:
((How much need to spend if get same number of visitors from Google Adwords) - $0.00
Revenue report ▼
Google.com would generate approximately $16.1 per day if the source of income were advertisements, which equates to an estimated monthly revenue of $482.7 and annual gross revenue of approximately $5.9K. Based on these figures, the site's net worth is estimated at around $17.2K.How much would thedowtheory.com make?
- Daily Revenue:
- $16.09
- Monthly Revenue:
- $482.70
- Yearly Revenue:
- $5,872.85
How much is thedowtheory.com worth?
- Website Value:
- $17.2K
Ad Experience Report ▼
Summary of the ad experience rating of a website for a specific platform.Mobile summary
- Root domain:
- thedowtheory.com
- Ad filtering:
(Chrome is not filtering ads on your site.) - Off
- Status:
(The status of the site that is reviewed for the Better Ads Standards.) - Not reviewed
Desktop summary
- Root domain:
- thedowtheory.com
- Ad filtering:
(Chrome is not filtering ads on your site.) - Off
- Status:
(The status of the site that is reviewed for the Better Ads Standards.) - Not reviewed
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- thedowtheory.com
- Enforcement:
(Chrome is not preventing your site from opening new windows or tabs.) - Off
- Status:
(The status of the site reviewed for the abusive experiences.) - Not reviewed
Where is thedowtheory.com hosted? ▼
Thedowtheory.com may be hosted in multiple data centers distributed in different locations around the world. This is probably just one of them.- Server IP:
- 192.254.251.123
- ASN:
- AS46606
- ISP:
- Unified Layer
- Server Location:
- Houston
Texas, TX
77092
United States, US
Other sites hosted on 192.254.251.123
There are no other sites hosted on this IPHow fast does thedowtheory.com load? ▼
The average loading time of thedowtheory.com is n/a ms. The Desktop speed index is 50 and mobile speed index is 100.- Average Load Time:
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Page Speed (Google PageSpeed Insights) - Desktop
Field Data
Over the last 30 days, the field data shows that this page has a speed compared to other pages in the Chrome User Experience Report.We are showing the 90th percentile of FCP and the 95th percentile of FID.
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Lab Data
Page Speed (Google PageSpeed Insights) - Mobile
Field Data
Over the last 30 days, the field data shows that this page has a speed compared to other pages in the Chrome User Experience Report.We are showing the 90th percentile of FCP and the 95th percentile of FID.
First Contentful Paint (FCP)0
First Input Delay (FID)0
Origin Data
All pages served from this origin have an speed compared to other pages in the Chrome User Experience Report. over the last 30 days.To view suggestions tailored to each page, analyze individual page URLs.
First Contentful Paint (FCP)0
First Input Delay (FID)0
Lab Data
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Website compression is the process of reducing the size of website files, such as HTML, CSS, JavaScript, and image files, to improve website performance and load times. Compressing website files can significantly reduce the amount of data that needs to be transferred from the server to the user's browser, resulting in faster page load times and improved user experience. Files on thedowtheory.com are reduced by 66%.
thedowtheory.com use gzip compression.
Original size: 42.34 KB
Compressed size: 14.13 KB
File reduced by: 28.21 KB (66%)
Compressed size: 14.13 KB
File reduced by: 28.21 KB (66%)
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An SSL (Secure Sockets Layer) certificate is a digital certificate that establishes a secure encrypted connection between a web server and a user's web browser. It provides authentication and encryption, ensuring that data transmitted between the server and the browser remains private and protected. thedowtheory.com supports HTTPS. thedowtheory.com supports HTTPS
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Common Name: thedowtheory.com
Organization:
Location:
Issuer: Sectigo RSA Domain Validation Secure Server CA
Valid from: Jun 29 00:00:00 2019 GMT
Valid until: Jun 28 23:59:59 2020 GMT
Authority: Is not a CA
Keysize:
Organization:
Location:
Issuer: Sectigo RSA Domain Validation Secure Server CA
Valid from: Jun 29 00:00:00 2019 GMT
Valid until: Jun 28 23:59:59 2020 GMT
Authority: Is not a CA
Keysize:
Common Name: Sectigo RSA Domain Validation Secure Server CA
Organization: Sectigo Limited
Location: Salford, Greater Manchester, GB
Issuer: USERTrust RSA Certification Authority
Valid from: Nov 2 00:00:00 2018 GMT
Valid until: Dec 31 23:59:59 2030 GMT
Authority: Is a CA
Keysize: 2048 Bits
Organization: Sectigo Limited
Location: Salford, Greater Manchester, GB
Issuer: USERTrust RSA Certification Authority
Valid from: Nov 2 00:00:00 2018 GMT
Valid until: Dec 31 23:59:59 2030 GMT
Authority: Is a CA
Keysize: 2048 Bits
Common Name: USERTrust RSA Certification Authority
Organization: The USERTRUST Network
Location: Jersey City, New Jersey, US
Issuer: AddTrust External CA Root
Valid from: May 30 10:48:38 2000 GMT
Valid until: May 30 10:48:38 2020 GMT
Authority: Is a CA
Keysize: 4096 Bits
Organization: The USERTRUST Network
Location: Jersey City, New Jersey, US
Issuer: AddTrust External CA Root
Valid from: May 30 10:48:38 2000 GMT
Valid until: May 30 10:48:38 2020 GMT
Authority: Is a CA
Keysize: 4096 Bits
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HTTP/2 (Hypertext Transfer Protocol version 2) is a major revision of the HTTP protocol, which is the foundation of data communication on the World Wide Web. It was developed as an improvement over the previous HTTP/1.1 version to enhance web performance and efficiency. thedowtheory.com supports HTTP/2
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HTTP headers are extra portions of records despatched among a consumer (which include an internet browser) and a server at some stage in an HTTP request or response. They offer instructions, metadata, or manipulate parameters for the conversation among the consumer and server.Date: Mon, 08 Jul 2019 07:28:04 GMT
Server: Apache
Location: https://thedowtheory.com/
Content-Length: 299
Content-Type: text/html; charset=iso-8859-1
HTTP/2 200
date: Mon, 08 Jul 2019 07:28:05 GMT
server: Apache
expires: Wed, 11 Jan 1984 05:00:00 GMT
cache-control: no-cache, must-revalidate, max-age=0
link: <https://thedowtheory.com/wp-json/>; rel="https://api.w.org/"
vary: Accept-Encoding
content-encoding: gzip
content-length: 14472
content-type: text/html; charset=UTF-8
Whois Lookup ▼
Domain WHOIS is a public database that provides information about domain names, including registered owners, contact information, domain registrars, registration and expiration dates, name servers, and other relevant information. Domain registration for this website began on March 26, 1998 and will expire on May 12, 2024 if not renewed. This website is now assigned through the registrar . The WHOIS data for this website's domain was last updated on May 12, 2024.- Domain Created:
- 1998-03-26
- Domain Age:
- 26 years 1 months 17 days
- WhoIs:
whois lookup at whois.networksolutions.com...IP Address Has Reached Rate Limitwhois lookup at whois.crsnic.net...Domain Name: THEDOWTHEORY.COM Registry Domain ID: 2103724_DOMAIN_COM-VRSN Registrar WHOIS Server: whois.networksolutions.com Registrar URL: http://networksolutions.com Updated Date: 2013-07-25T21:41:22Z Creation Date: 1998-03-26T05:00:00Z Registry Expiry Date: 2020-03-25T04:00:00Z Registrar: Network Solutions, LLC Registrar IANA ID: 2 Registrar Abuse Contact Email:Registrar Abuse Contact Phone: +1.8003337680 Domain Status: clientTransferProhibited https://icann.org/epp#clientTransferProhibited Name Server: NS6411.HOSTGATOR.COM Name Server: NS6412.HOSTGATOR.COM DNSSEC: unsigned URL of the ICANN Whois Inaccuracy Complaint Form: https://www.icann.org/wicf/ >>> Last update of whois database: 2019-07-08T07:28:33Z <<< For more information on Whois status codes, please visit https://icann.org/epp NOTICE: The expiration date displayed in this record is the date the registrar's sponsorship of the domain name registration in the registry is currently set to expire. This date does not necessarily reflect the expiration date of the domain name registrant's agreement with the sponsoring registrar. Users may consult the sponsoring registrar's Whois database to view the registrar's reported date of expiration for this registration. TERMS OF USE: You are not authorized to access or query our Whois database through the use of electronic processes that are high-volume and automated except as reasonably necessary to register domain names or modify existing registrations; the Data in VeriSign Global Registry Services' ("VeriSign") Whois database is provided by VeriSign for information purposes only, and to assist persons in obtaining information about or related to a domain name registration record. VeriSign does not guarantee its accuracy. By submitting a Whois query, you agree to abide by the following terms of use: You agree that you may use this Data only for lawful purposes and that under no circumstances will you use this Data to: (1) allow, enable, or otherwise support the transmission of mass unsolicited, commercial advertising or solicitations via e-mail, telephone, or facsimile; or (2) enable high volume, automated, electronic processes that apply to VeriSign (or its computer systems). The compilation, repackaging, dissemination or other use of this Data is expressly prohibited without the prior written consent of VeriSign. You agree not to use electronic processes that are automated and high-volume to access or query the Whois database except as reasonably necessary to register domain names or modify existing registrations. VeriSign reserves the right to restrict your access to the Whois database in its sole discretion to ensure operational stability. VeriSign may restrict or terminate your access to the Whois database for failure to abide by these terms of use. VeriSign reserves the right to modify these terms at any time. The Registry database contains ONLY .COM, .NET, .EDU domains and Registrars.